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Dream Cheating Scandal - Explaining All the Math Simply
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- 1 Disclaimer
- 2 Background of the drama
- 3 Binomial distribution
- 4 Applying binomial distribution
- 5 Bias 1: Stopping criterion
- 6 Bias 2: Stream selection bias
- 7 Bias 3: Runner selection bias
- 8 Bias 4: p-hacking
- 9 Mod team math summary
- 10 Main criticism from astrophysicist
- 11 Minor criticisms from astrophysicist
- 12 Blatant mistake of astrophysicist
- 13 Outro and endcard stuff
- 14 : p-values mean getting AT LEAST as lucky as these success rates, not just as lucky.
- 15 : The streams aren't exactly independent, so this is not an exact answer, but it works as an overestimate nonetheless because they are positively correlated; if you are not convinced, you can also co…
- 16 : I said 1.19 * 10^(-12), but the figure shown on screen is correct: 1.19*10^(-11).
- 17 : 1000 is the UPPER BOUND, not an estimation
- 18 : This is based on the faulty assumption that all speedrun attempts are streamed.
- 19 : The astrophysicist's 1 in 6300 is somewhat close to the chance of 18 heads in a row, or 19 of heads or tails in a row, so maybe some coding mistakes, or that he is exceptionally lucky in obtaining …
