This course aims to explain the math involved in the Dream cheating scandal in a simple manner, without passing judgment on the individuals involved. The learning outcomes include understanding statistical tools for bias corrections, probability, and statistics such as binomial distribution, Fisher method, and Bonferroni correction. The course teaches skills in coding and mathematical analysis. The teaching method involves a video format with detailed explanations of the math used by both the moderation team and an astrophysicist. The intended audience includes fans interested in the scandal, individuals seeking to understand statistical concepts, and those curious about the application of math in real-life situations.
Overview
Syllabus
Disclaimer.
Background of the drama.
Binomial distribution.
Applying binomial distribution.
Bias 1: Stopping criterion.
Bias 2: Stream selection bias.
Bias 3: Runner selection bias.
Bias 4: p-hacking.
Mod team math summary.
Main criticism from astrophysicist.
Minor criticisms from astrophysicist.
Blatant mistake of astrophysicist.
Outro and endcard stuff.
: p-values mean getting AT LEAST as lucky as these success rates, not just as lucky..
: The streams aren't exactly independent, so this is not an exact answer, but it works as an overestimate nonetheless because they are positively correlated; if you are not convinced, you can also consider the Bonferroni correction, which is very close to this..
: I said 1.19 * 10^(-12), but the figure shown on screen is correct: 1.19*10^(-11)..
: 1000 is the UPPER BOUND, not an estimation.
: This is based on the faulty assumption that all speedrun attempts are streamed..
: The astrophysicist's 1 in 6300 is somewhat close to the chance of 18 heads in a row, or 19 of heads or tails in a row, so maybe some coding mistakes, or that he is exceptionally lucky in obtaining so many runs of 20 heads in his simulation..
Taught by
Mathemaniac
