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Delft University of Technology

Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment

Delft University of Technology via edX

Overview

In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to address the critical lack of any or appropriate data in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.

For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?

In situations like these, expert opinions are needed to address complex decision-making problems. This course, aimed at researchers and professionals from any academic background, will show you how expert opinion can be used for uncertainty quantification in a rigorous manner.

CM, developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, has been successfully applied for over 30 years in areas as diverse as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public and global health, ecology, aeronautics/aerospace, nuclear safety, environment and ecology, engineering and many others.

Syllabus

WEEK 1: Why and when to use SEJ?

WEEK 2: Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score

WEEK 3: Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker

WEEK 4: Data analysis

WEEK 5: Applications of CM

WEEK 6: Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)

Taught by

Tina Nane

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