This course aims to educate learners on the modeling of viral zoonotic infectious diseases from wildlife to humans. The learning outcomes include understanding the transmission and maintenance of viruses in reservoir hosts, utilizing Markov chain and branching process models for infection analysis, and estimating probabilities of spillover. The course teaches skills such as applying mathematical models to study zoonoses, analyzing probabilities using differential equations, and simulating infection scenarios. The teaching method involves theoretical explanations, analytical approximations, and simulation comparisons. This course is intended for individuals interested in mathematical modeling, epidemiology, zoonotic diseases, public health, and wildlife conservation.
Modeling of Viral Zoonotic Infectious Diseases from Wildlife to Humans
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Overview
Syllabus
Intro
The term "Zoonosis" was first used by Rudolf Virchow, a Pioneer in Cellular Pathology
Many Emerging and Re-Emerging Diseases are a Result of a Spillower from Animals to Humans
According to the CDC Website, there are Eight Priority Zoonoses in the United States.
Many Emerging Zoonoses from Wikillife are Spread from cither a Natural Reservoir or an Intermediate Host.
Four Stages are Necessary for Transmission and Maintenance of the Virus in the Reservoir Host.
Markow Chain Models Indicate Sporadic Cases of Infection in the Spillower Population.
Branching Proc Theory can be used to obtain an Analytical Approximation for Probability of Spillower
Application of the Backward Kolmogoro Differential Equation Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of No Spillover as a Function of to
Branching Process Theory Leads to an Estimate for the Probability of Spillover.
The Average Values of the Periodic Probabilities Differ Significantly from Probabilities Computed from the Average Parameter Values.
The Periodic Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marko Chain
The Probability of Spillover is Computed from the Branching Process Approximation and Checked with Simulations of the Marlow Chain.
Mathematical Models Help us Understand the Effects of Multiple Species, Multiple Hosts, Direct and Indirect Transmission, and Environmental Conditions on Wildlife Zoonoses
Zoonoses and Public Health Safety Require Collaboration, Cooperation, and Education
Taught by
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