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Moving Beyond Expectations
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Classroom Contents
Counterfactual Prediction in Transport Modelling - Ricardo Silva & Charisma Choudhury
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- 1 Intro
- 2 Causality in Transport Modelling
- 3 This Talk Problems on interest
- 4 Disrupted Exits Will Not Fit Natural Regime
- 5 Potential Uses
- 6 Causal Prediction in Our Setup
- 7 Examples of Related Work
- 8 Counterfactual Mapping in the Underground A Flow-Based Featurisation . Covariates here are the state of the system at the moment of the disruption, so all random variables are conditioned on the past…
- 9 Example of Parameterisation
- 10 Example of Output
- 11 Moving Beyond Expectations
- 12 Comparing Scores
- 13 Out-of-Sample Evaluation
- 14 Comparison
- 15 Log-likelihood of Disrupted Exit Counts Log-scale
- 16 Exit-Count Distributions
- 17 Conclusions
