This course focuses on Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model. The learning outcomes include understanding the need for software quality assurance, learning about the Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT) procedure, evaluating ensemble variability, and conducting hypothesis testing based on Principal Components. The course teaches skills such as identifying affected variables, converting source code to a directed graph, and analyzing statistical details of the ECT. The teaching method involves theoretical discussions, case studies, and statistical analysis. This course is intended for climate scientists, computational scientists, and experts in earth system sciences interested in climate change research and modeling.
Contained Chaos - Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model
Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics via YouTube
Overview
Syllabus
Intro
The National Center for Atmospheric Research
Community Earth System Model (CESM)
Need for Software Quality Assurance
Motivation
Evaluating the difference
Our new approach: Ensemble Consistency Test
Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT)
Creation of and comparison with ensemble
Quantity ensemble variability
Hypothesis Testing based on Principal Components
ECT Procedure
How wel does CAM ECT work?
Do we really need year-long runs?
Counterexample 1: HYDRO-BASEFLOW
Counterexample 2: RAND
UF-CAM-ECT and CAM-ECT
A highly accurate test leads to new challenges...
First step: identify affected variables
Next: convert source code to directed graph
Looking at the statistical details of the ECT.
The ECT scheme viewed as a series of RVS
Illustration of estimation bias of eigenvalues
Estimator and ensemble size effect on false positive rate
Alternative estimators for different ensemble sizes
Taught by
Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics
